The Grant Williams Podcast

The End Game Ep. 57 - Harley Bassman PREVIEW

In the latest episode of The End Game, Fleck and I welcome back Harley Bassman—aka the ‘Convexity Maven’—for a deep dive into the shifting landscape of global bond markets, inflation, and the future of the US dollar. Harley contends that while US bond yields have risen sharply in recent years, they are now approaching fair value when measured against historical spreads and nominal GDP. The real challenge, he argues, lies in the rapid adjustment after decades of suppressed rates, and in how markets adapt to this new reality.

Our discussion explores the profound impact of demographic trends, such as the early retirement of baby boomers and delayed household formation among millennials, as well as the often-underappreciated role of immigration in sustaining US economic growth. We also examine the risks associated with persistent fiscal deficits and mounting debt, as the potential erosion of the dollar’s reserve currency status presents a problem with potentially far-reaching consequences.

Despite the scale of these challenges, Harley remains sanguine, suggesting that the system’s imbalances are more like slow-moving trains than imminent crashes. But, with heightened volatility and policy uncertainty likely to persist, diversified portfolios—including gold and inflation hedges—are prudent responses.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 104 - Dmitri Alperovitch

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I talk with with cybersecurity expert and author Dmitri Alperovitch to discuss his book, ‘World on the Brink,’ and the escalating risk of conflict between China and Taiwan. Dmitri, who forecast Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, draws striking parallels between Vladimir Putin’s motivations and those now driving Xi Jinping’s ambitions toward Taiwan, identifying five recurring factors—distorted historical narratives, belief in national destiny, security imperatives, personal ego, and the urgency of aging leaders—that are converging once again, this time in East Asia.

The conversation examines concrete evidence of China’s preparations for a potential invasion, from military training sites in Inner Mongolia replicating Taipei’s streets, to sophisticated cyber campaigns targeting US infrastructure, and the construction of landing craft engineered for amphibious assaults and Dmitri argues that Taiwan’s significance extends well beyond its semiconductor industry; control of the island would enable China to project power across the Pacific, fundamentally altering the regional balance and eroding U.S. influence.

Dmitri calls for urgent strategic measures, including decoupling from China in critical technologies and forming a new economic alliance—TAME (Treaty of Allied Market Economies)—to help smaller nations withstand Chinese pressure, and he contends that Western responses to China are not provocations, but long-overdue reactions to years of aggression and intellectual property theft. With a potential invasion window between 2028 and 2032, the discussion underscores the need for robust deterrence, stronger alliances, and strategic competition to preserve stability in the region.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

The Hundred Year Pivot Ep. 5 - Charles Calomiris

In the fifth episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri Kofinas and I sit down with economist Charles Calomiris for a probing exploration of America’s fiscal future and the deeper societal forces shaping it. The conversation delves into the concept of fiscal dominance—the point at which mounting government debt and deficits compel inflationary policies, sidelining the intentions of central banks, with Charles warning that the US is edging closer to this scenario, driven by unsustainable deficits and a political system gridlocked by the self-interest of key voting blocs and an unwillingness to confront hard choices around entitlements like Social Security and Medicare.

However, the discussion moves beyond the technicalities of economic policy as Charles contends that the roots of the crisis are as much moral and societal as they are financial, pointing to a broader decline in civic responsibility and shared values across generations. Drawing on historical parallels, he suggests that periods of crisis can also spark transformative leadership and a renewed search for social cohesion. This leads to a reflection on the possibility of hope—if individuals and communities can rediscover a sense of purpose and responsibility—as well as the importance of integrity and leadership at every level.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 103 - Victor Haghani

In the latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of Elm Wealth, for a conversation that spans revolution, crisis, and hard-earned wisdom. From seeing his family lose nearly everything during the Iranian revolution, to his high-stakes years at Salomon Brothers and as a founding partner of the infamous Long-Term Capital Management, Victor’s journey is nothing short of extraordinary.

After stepping back from markets for over a decade following LTCM’s collapse, he returned with a mission: to help investors avoid the pitfalls he’d seen firsthand. We discuss the crucial—and often overlooked—importance of position sizing, the seductive danger of private equity pitches, and why too many wealthy investors are flying blind.

Victor shares the principles behind his “eyes open” investing philosophy and explains why sticking to low-cost, diversified, logic-based strategies may be the most underrated path to long-term success. This is a conversation packed with insight, humility, and lessons that only experience can teach.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

The Hundred Year Pivot Ep. 4 - Dr. Pippa Malmgren

In another compelling episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri and I are joined by Dr. Pippa Malmgren to unpack the profound challenges facing American society today. Drawing from her extensive experience in US and UK political spheres, Pippa explores the collapse of shared narratives amid political polarization, economic pressures, and an overwhelming flood of information that drives people into ideological silos. She highlights how this ‘narrative collapse,’ fueled by repeated national traumas and algorithm-driven media, threatens public trust, rational discourse, and the very legitimacy of government.

Pippa calls this moment a Copernican shift in American reality, emphasizing the urgent need for what she so beautifully describes as ‘heartware’- empathy, compassion, and courageous dialogue – to navigate these turbulent times. We also touch on the implications of recent UAP disclosures as symbols of institutional opacity and the limits of current scientific paradigms as Pippa offers a vital perspective on how we might rebuild understanding and resilience in an era defined by uncertainty and division.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 102 - Warren Pies

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research to unpack the challenges of investing in a world defined by policy shocks, geopolitical uncertainty, and persistent volatility. His data-driven approach allows Warren to cut through the noise of political unpredictability—particularly around Trump-era tariffs—and we focus the conversation on market signals, sentiment shifts, and technical indicators in today’s unstable landscape. From the precarious relationship between bonds and equities to the evolving role of the U.S. dollar, Warren offers a grounded yet insightful take on where the real risks—and opportunities—lie.

We dive deep into sector dynamics, especially the misunderstood signals coming from oil and credit markets, and Warren explains how quantitative models can help investors adapt to a regime defined by monetary debasement. With a candid look at sentiment extremes and capital flow inertia, Warren frames the U.S. not as a market without problems, but as the “cleanest dirty shirt” in a soiled global wardrobe—still investable, but only for those prepared to stay agile.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

The Hundred Year Pivot Ep. 3 - Russell Napier

In the third episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri and I are joined by one of our main inspirations for setting out on this podcast journey, renowned financial historian Russell Napier, for a sweeping exploration of the deep structural imbalances reshaping the global economic and monetary order. Russell lays out a powerful framework for understanding the unwinding of decades-long distortions—rising debt, trade and capital flow asymmetries, and the pivotal role of China in the shifting global balance. As geopolitical alliances realign and governments turn increasingly to capital controls and financial repression, Russell warns that traditional investment strategies may prove dangerously inadequate.

From the future of the U.S. dollar to the strategic role of gold and real assets, Russell offers a masterclass in navigating a world where preserving wealth demands foresight, flexibility, and a willingness to think far beyond the consensus as The Hundred Year Pivot forces us to completely change the way we think about the world around us and how we invest therein.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

The Hundred Year Pivot Ep. 2 - Neil Howe

In the second episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri and I talk with the man whose work inspired us to set off on this journey together – the co-author of seminal book The Fourth Turning and author of The Fourth Turning is Here, Neil Howe.

What follows is a timely and thought-provoking conversation on generational theory and the turbulent state of not just the United States, but the entire world today. From rising partisanship and institutional decay to shifting cultural norms around religion, gender, and substance use, Neil unpacks the patterns he sees repeating—and what they might mean for the road ahead.

We explore the defining characteristics of a Fourth Turning, why America and the rest of the world may already be deep into one, and what the implications could be both at home and on the world stage—including the possibility of a major confrontation with China.

This is a deep dive into the forces reshaping our society with one of their keenest observers—and a disturbing look at what history tells us might come next.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 101 - Tian Yang

In this thought-provoking episode, I’m joined by Tian Yang of Variant Perception to explore the deep structural forces reshaping the global economy and geopolitical order. From the unintended consequences of Donald Trump’s tariff policies to China’s underappreciated resilience and strategic foresight, Tian offers a fresh, data-driven perspective on the shifting balance of power between East and West. The conversation moves beyond headlines to examine how innovation, manufacturing re-shoring, and changing reserve dynamics are altering the investment landscape.

Tian also highlights the growing divergence in policymaking philosophies between major economies and the investment opportunities arising from those fractures before highlighting Europe’s fiscal constraints, the risks of financial repression in the US, and the emergence of a CapEx-driven supercycle.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 100 - Lynne Bryan Phipps FULL EPISODE

To celebrate the 100th episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m delighted to welcome my friend Lynne Bryan Phipps for a discussion unlike any of the 99 that preceded it as she and I take a personal journey into the incredible world of Integrative Equine Therapy (IET).

Lynne – an ordained minister, architect and psychologist and the founder of one of Rhode Island’s leading charter schools – also founded Beachwood Centre, an extraordinary place where Lynne and her staff provide help for those suffering from trauma, anxiety, PTSD, grief and other stress-related issues, with the aid of horses.

My own personal experience working with Lynne opened my eyes to something remarkable and, in this conversation, we talk about the remarkable work being done at Beachwood, the extraordinary data collected by Brown University, demonstrating the incredible healing power of IET and how (and why) horses are a transformational factor when it comes to this kind of work.

This is a conversation you won’t forget.

At the end of the conversation you’ll find ways in which you can help Lynne continue the important work being done at Beachwood. So, if you’ve enjoyed my work, and you’re in a position to make a contribution – no matter how small – please consider donating to this wonderful cause.

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. 

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.